Tuesday, 8 March 2016

Turkey and the EU and NATO - No Turkish Delight!

Turbulent Times


Turkey and NATO and the EU are, it seems in constant discussion about how best to resolve the Syrian refugee and migrant crisis which is placing immense pressures on their respective countries.

Turkey, we are told, has a couple million displaced Syrians currently living in the country, something which is undoubtedly placing immense strains on the country's socio-economic and political system. While there has to be some acknowledgement of this extremely difficult situation, one also has to consider the extent to which Turkey has brought this situation on herself, or has made a bad situation worse. 

Turkey's government, under the Machiavellian rule of Erdogan, has become hostage to its ambition to becoming a bigger and more dominant player the region's and international geo-politics. This has led to Erdogan's crass interference in the Syrian proxy war, her alliance with Sunni Muslim states against the Syrian Government, it acting as an agent provocateur - e.g., in the downing of the Russian Jet, probably in an attempt to get more NATO involvement in the conflict and more military support for Turkey's armed forces - and the use of the Syrian refugees and migrants to both resource Syrian rebel groups it is backing, and to exert pressure on the European Union, to try to extract favourable results in discussion about dealing with the refugee/migrant crisis, as well as Turkey joining the EU.

It is difficult to see how the European Union could accommodate Turkey, under its present leadership and government, as a member of this Union.  Turkey has, it appears, unilaterally ended the ceasefire with the PKK, and has attacked them in such a way that it has resulted in the deaths of many hundreds, probably thousands of people, and wide-spread destruction in parts of the country. This situation is apparently being under-reported, probably as a result of both the government's draconian restrictions on press freedom, and also because NATO and the EU do not consider it politically expedient to keep what is taking place in the forefront of the media.

How does one reconcile Turkey' draconian crack-down on the media, her leading role in the Sunni/Shiite religion and political struggle which is taking place in the Islamic world, and reports that she is in supporting  IS/Daesh and other Islamists in the Syrian proxy war, with the secular world-view of the EU and NATO?

Turkey is keen to extract the maximum concession from NATO and the EU, and, it seems to me, is clearly not bothered about diplomatic and ethical niceties. It would appear that the EU and NATO are being guided by what they might consider to be the politics of pragmatism, and are willing to promise Turkey the earth, while they try to avoid having to deliver on their promises for as long as possible. 

With neither Turkey nor the EU and NATO having much trust in the other side - consider the US not bombing Syrian Government and becoming less passionate about supporting the Saudi Sunni coalition as a result of the Iran nuclear agreement -in this case, the EU and NATO are probably pinning their hopes on Erdogan and his government being removed from power in the not too distant future.




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