The Battle for Aleppo is not a battle which the Syrian Government and its Russian, Iranian and Lebanese allies can afford to lose to the opposing opposition forces and their external allies; probably any more than the Russians could have afforded to lose the Battle of Leningrad to the German forces in the Second World War
Based on what we can see from some of the media pictures of the Syrian City of Aleppo, a City which was probably the jewel in Syria's crown, Aleppo is a bloodied city, whose heart is being torn out of her, and which is still, largely heartless, trying to cling onto life, survival.
The City has been a battle ground for several years now, probably bearing some semblance to Russia's Leningrad in the Second World War. It has been put to the torch, first by the rebels who stormed it back in 2011/2012, and then by the Syrian Government forces, in their resistance, as they gradually gave ground to the rebels and the Extreme Islamic forces of Al Queda and Isis/Daesh.
And, in all this, as has tended to be the case with wars, and especially civil wars turned international conflict, which the Syrian War has now become, it is the ordinary people of the City of Aleppo, and their infrastructure, commerce, industry and property which has had to bear the brunt of the devastation.
Aleppo, or large parts of it, has, like many places in Syria, taken on the imagery of ancient ruins, not all that dissimilar to those of Palmyra, which, several months ago, had been cleared of the Isis/Daesh devils who took it over and drove out the Syrian Government forces.
The difference between the ancient ruins of Palmyra and the contemporary conflict generated ruins of the City of Aleppo, is that there are believed to be upto 500,000 Syrians civilians still living, surviving, dying and suffering in Aleppo. Despite the terrible odds, these humans, divided between rebel/Daesh/Isis controlled eastern part of the City, and the Government controlled western part, are displaying the indubitable spirit to survive against the odd which fate has decreed them.
Over the past two weeks, the fighting in and around Aleppo has taken on renewed urgency and intensity, as the Syrian Government forces and their Russian, Hezbollah and Iranian allies started a campaign which, it was believed, intended to drive the rebel and IS/Daesh forces out of their part of the City, and allow the Government to have total control. This campaign appears to have been halted or somewhat bogged down by the response of the opposition forces to it. Which, it appears, has been to an alliance of expediency and necessity between most or all of the opposition forces fighting the Government.
If the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and the Syrian Government, had been wrong in the past, in arguing that there is no difference between the forces fighting the Government, and that they are all terrorists, the response of these forces to the campaign to retake all of Aleppo, would suggest that they are now right. It would appear that all of these forces, irrespective of which ever point along the spectrum of Extreme Islamic politics they are located, they have resolved to form an alliance to fight off what they probably consider to be an existentialist threat to them in Syria.
And what is to be the response of the Syrian Government and their Russian, Iranian and Lebanese allies to this, probably unexpected and ferocious counter attack by the opposition forces fighting them? If they were to retreat, or, be defeated, that could risk prolonging the war and the suffering of the people of Aleppo, and the rest of Syria. The City would continue to suffers more devastation and the people's misery would be prolonged. It would also create further opportunities in future for other parties to join the conflict and make an already very complex situation worse and more difficult to be resolved.
The Battle of Aleppo, unfortunately, cannot be fought without inflicting more suffering on her people and destruction on its infra-structure. Similarly, the current status quo is not one which is going to best serve the people of the City, although it would serve the opposition forces and allow them to further consolidate their hold over the people. There is no evidence that this conflict can be resolved through a negotiated settlement, at present, and even though it is very probably that there will be some level of violence and conflict years after the fighting has abated and the government re-establishes it control over the country, it is still necessary for government to remove the capacity of the rebels to be an effective fighting force, before peace and reconciliation and reconstruction can begin.
And so, it seems to me, as I have argued in the past, the evidence would suggest that the best way to bring the suffering of the people of Aleppo to an end, would be for the Government forces and their allies to respond to the opposition forces counter-attach with an intensity several times greater than that of the rebels.
This Battle for Aleppo is clearly not one which the Syrian Government and its allies can afford not to win, or to become too drawn out.
However, in endeavouring to win it, the government forces should be mindful of the fact that they need to do all they can reasonably do to protect the civilian population, as peace does not just mean the absence of violent conflict, and nation building needs the consensus of a people who are able to identify and empathise with the aspirations and values of the nation to be built.
It is the people who are the most important element of nation building; not the land and its sovereignty, the potential of which can only be realised through the labour, love and hope of the people.
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